PSR Drink

Editorial - Predictions and Credibility

Today I was filing away some of the old emails that had built up in my in box and I came across a Bakersfield Californian article from February 5, 2003.  OK, so some of the emails in my in box are VERY old, and its original sender has been long deceased.  But, I digress.  My point is that re-reading quotes and predictions from five years ago can yield great insight on people's credibility today.

The article, entitled "Road rules concern activists", reported on a rule adopted by the Bush administration Interior Department that was to "make it easier for states and local governments to claim title to roads on federal lands."  Motorized access advocates often refer to such roads as RS2477 routes, a name reflecting the intent of a 1972 federal law which protects historic, established routes of travel from being closed.

Let's look at two quotes from this article of five years ago and see which prediction was more accurate.

Amanda Dranginis of the California Wilderness Coalition reportedly said:  "Basically it's going to allow off-road vehicle groups to run wild through areas that are supposed to be congressionally designated and protected as wilderness. It's huge."

My friend Ron Schiller of the High Desert Multiple Use Coalition was also quoted:  "I don't think there's going to be some mass opening of roads like some of the environmentalists portray it."

Now, five years later, and with the Bush administration Interior Department already starting to pack their bags, which of the two deserve the Chicken Little award?  We at know of not one single mile of road anywhere in the country that has been turned over to the locals by the federal government under this rule.

The next time I read dueling predictions by Ms. Dranginis and Mr. Schiller, I will remember this article when considering their credibility and who to believe.  I'll score this round for Mr. Schiller.